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Prediction for CME (2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-03-02T18:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19327/-1 CME Note: The CME is associated with the M2.0 class from Active Region 12958 (N18E27) peaking at 2022-03-02T17:39Z and the eruption marked by an EUV wave and seen in EUVI A 195 and AIA 193 after 2022-03-02T17:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:45Z): There is no conclusive arrival signature for this ICME. The L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream. CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-06T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19338/1 Model Inputs: 2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=442.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-03-03T04:05Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-03-06T04:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-03-06T01:13Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220303_040500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 29.88 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-03-04T22:07Z |
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